Fuel dealers are warning that petrol could hit KES 231.68 per litre when EPRA announces new pump prices on April 14. If that projection holds, it would represent a 30% increase from the current KES 178.28. It would also mark the strongest economic argument for electric vehicles that Kenya’s nascent EV market has ever had.
Martin Chomba, chair of the Petroleum Outlets Association of Kenya (POAK), told Inooro FM on Tuesday that the expected increase could range between KES 30 and KES 60 per litre. The figure is based on the weighted average cost of fuel shipments that arrived at Mombasa between March 9 and April 10. Unlike the current pump price, which was calculated using pre-crisis February cargoes, the next cycle will carry the full impact of the Middle East conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has disrupted roughly 20% of global oil supply.
Chomba pointed to Tanzania, which recently raised fuel prices by more than 30%, as a signal of what is coming for Kenya.
None of this matters if you charge at home.
The maths, at KES 231
Let’s compare running costs using real Kenyan figures.
A typical fuel-efficient petrol car (a Toyota Vitz, Mazda Demio, or similar compact hatchback common on Kenyan roads) achieves roughly 12 km per litre. At the projected KES 231.68 per litre, that works out to about KES 19.31 per kilometre.
A comparable electric vehicle (a used Nissan Leaf, for example, the most common EV in Kenya) consumes roughly 17.5 kWh per 100 km, or 0.175 kWh per kilometre. Charged at home using Kenya Power’s domestic tariff of approximately KES 16 to 20 per kWh, the cost comes to about KES 2.80 to KES 3.50 per kilometre.
If you charge using the special e-mobility tariff that EPRA introduced for EV charging infrastructure (KES 8 per kWh during off-peak hours), the cost drops to roughly KES 1.40 per kilometre.
Put simply: at KES 231 per litre, a petrol car costs between five and fourteen times more to run per kilometre than an EV, depending on how and where you charge.
For a driver covering 1,500 km per month (a reasonable estimate for an urban Nairobi commuter), the monthly fuel bill at KES 231 would be approximately KES 28,960. The same distance in a Nissan Leaf, charged at home, would cost roughly KES 4,200 to KES 5,250. That is a monthly saving of around KES 23,700 to KES 24,750, or roughly KES 285,000 to KES 297,000 per year.
The structural argument
The fuel price crisis is not a one-off event. It is the logical outcome of a structural vulnerability. Kenya imports 100% of its refined petroleum from the Middle East under government-to-government deals with Gulf suppliers. The country holds no strategic petroleum reserve. Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi told Parliament the country has just 16 days of petrol stocks. Pipeline reserves last 21 to 30 days at most.
Every geopolitical shock, from the 2022 Ukraine-Russia conflict to the current Iran war, hits Kenya’s fuel market directly. The only question is timing. The March-April pricing cycle was insulated because the shipments had been purchased before the crisis. The April-May cycle will not be.
This is the vulnerability that electric mobility is designed to address. Kenya generates over 90% of its electricity from renewable sources, primarily geothermal and hydropower. An EV charged in Nairobi runs on locally produced, renewable energy. It does not depend on a tanker passing through the Strait of Hormuz. It does not care whether Brent crude is at $60 or $110 per barrel.
That distinction is not abstract. It is the difference between a KES 29,000 monthly fuel bill and a KES 5,000 one.
The barriers are real, but shifting
None of this means EVs are accessible to most Kenyans today. The upfront cost remains the primary obstacle. A used Nissan Leaf starts at around KES 2 million to KES 3 million, while a comparable used petrol hatchback can be found for under KES 1.5 million. The running cost savings are dramatic, but the entry price is higher.
Charging infrastructure is still concentrated in Nairobi. Kenya Power has announced plans to install 45 EV chargers across six counties, but coverage outside major urban centres remains thin. For rural Kenya, where 68% of fuel retailers are located and where fuel shortages are already biting hardest, EVs are not yet a practical alternative.
Government policy has been supportive on paper. EVs enjoy a reduced 10% import duty (compared to 25% for conventional vehicles), exemption from excise duty, and zero VAT. Kenya launched its National Electric Mobility Policy in February 2026, and cumulative EV registrations have grown from 1,378 in 2022 to 39,324 by 2025, a 2,700% increase in three years. But nearly 90% of those are electric motorcycles, not passenger cars. The four-wheeler market is still in its infancy.
There is also a fiscal tension the government has not resolved. The Road Maintenance Levy, currently set at KES 25 per litre of fuel, generated KES 119.7 billion in the 2024/25 financial year. As EVs displace petrol consumption, that revenue base shrinks. The Ministry of Roads and Transport projects a KES 89.5 billion shortfall by 2043. Alternative revenue mechanisms (per-kilometre charges, higher EV registration fees) have been discussed but not implemented.
What the crisis changes
Every fuel crisis in Kenya’s recent history has reignited interest in electric mobility. The 2023 crisis, when pump prices exceeded KES 200 and fuel queues returned to Nairobi, pushed more consumers to research EVs. The current crisis, driven by a conflict that has closed the world’s most important oil chokepoint, is more severe.
The difference this time is that the EV ecosystem is more developed. Local assemblers like Roam, BasiGo, Spiro, and Ampersand are operational. Financing models like BasiGo’s Pay-As-You-Drive are lowering barriers for fleet operators. The e-mobility tariff makes commercial charging economically viable. And the National E-Mobility Policy gives the sector its first comprehensive policy framework.
If petrol does hit KES 231 next week, the conversation will shift from “can I afford an EV?” to “can I afford not to look into one?” For fleet operators, boda boda riders, and urban commuters running the numbers, the answer is becoming clearer with every EPRA review.
